Cities in Africa are growing fast: over 65% of the population will live in urban areas by 2060. This rapid urbanisation is drastically increasing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Air pollution is already Africa’s second biggest cause of death, after HIV/AIDS. So how can African cities catalyse growth that is fast, fair and sustainable?
This report looks at the potential benefits of tackling air pollution and climate change together in four cities: Cairo, Lagos, Johannesburg and Accra. Our analysis maps the health, economic and climate impacts of increasing air pollution along a “business as usual” growth path. It then contrasts this trajectory with an alternative scenario in which cities implement clean air measures as they grow, such as upgraded public transport, cleaner cookstoves, and greener industrial technology and energy. The findings suggest that similar gains could be achieved in other major cities experiencing exponential growth across Africa.
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The impact of air pollution affects us all, but not equally. With over 1 million deaths caused by polluted air in Africa in just 2019, our continent’s great cities are at the frontlines of this often-overlooked health, economic and environmental crisis…To make the case for investing in fixing air pollution to their constituents, decision makers need credible and quality information like what this report presents.Mohammed Adjei Sowah, former Mayor of Accra, foreword
Africa’s economic growth will be driven by fast-expanding cities. Over 65% of the continent’s population is expected to live in urban areas by 2060. By the end of the century, Africa will host 5 of the 10 largest megacities in the world.
The big question now is how fast, fair and sustainable this growth will be. Without ambitious plans to adopt new pathways to healthy and sustainable urban development, rapid urbanisation will increase the damaging health, economic and social impacts of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in these cities. Dirty air is already the continent’s second largest cause of death after HIV/AIDS. In 2019, air pollution caused 1.1 million deaths across Africa. Air pollution’s silent pandemic has already hit, so “business-as-usual” can no longer be the default option for growing cities. The most vulnerable people are always hit hardest, deepening the structural injustices in African cities that already have the world’s second highest rates of inequality, and compounding the damaging effects of climate change.
There is another way. Findings from the Climate and Clean Air Coalition’s Africa integrated assessment on air pollution and climate change (to be released during COP27) have shown that by prioritising air pollution along with climate change solutions, governments could unlock a raft of health, environmental and economic benefits for their citizens. Both air pollution and climate change are mainly caused by burning fossil fuels, so many of the solutions are the same. Toxic air disproportionately affects the most vulnerable, so addressing it will reduce health inequalities. And because it severely hampers productivity, cognitive performance and wellbeing, initiatives that clean the air will provide economic benefits.
So, national and city governments should recognise an economic opportunity to join the dots and use action on clean air as a catalyst for sustainable growth, which also helps mitigate and adapt to climate change.
This report takes a sample of four fast-expanding African cities: Accra, Cairo, Johannesburg and Lagos. It uses analysis from Dalberg Advisors to present a snapshot of key health, environmental and financial costs assuming a “business as usual” trajectory to 2040. It then contrasts this with an indicative scenario in which the cities adopt a set of clean air measures.
Based on this analysis, our report suggests that on their current path, some of Africa’s fastest-growing cities will see the financial costs of air pollution increase more than sixfold by 2040. On the flipside, these cities – and others like them – could unlock billions of dollars with policies and planning that enable green growth. The financial efficiencies would be accompanied by multiple other benefits like fewer deaths, lower emissions and reduced poverty.
This data visualisation shows the estimated outcomes from measures such as upgrading public transport, introducing cleaner cookstoves and cleaner industrial technology, and making land clearance and waste management more environmentally-friendly. It estimates the economic benefits each city could reap from improving life expectancy and reducing working days lost to the health effects of air pollution.
Use the arrows to navigate through these 6 key findings:
Between them, the cities could save at least 40,000 lives, unlock $20.4bn and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20% between 2023 and 2040. While these numbers are significant, the true benefits are likely to be higher, because they omit the positive effects of reducing air pollution’s impact on health care, agricultural production, productivity, and the environment.
A note on our numbers
These numbers are only indicative of the scale of the problem. Further research is needed to robustly quantify these findings using best practice modelling approaches. The projected benefits from air quality action are expressed in this study in financial terms, but these financialised benefits should not be understood to mean tangible funds raised or costs saved. The co-benefits gained from air quality action provide greater cost-effectiveness that recycles into local economies, strengthening health systems, businesses and government finances.
Implications for the whole continent and beyond
These findings have wider implications than these four cities. In November 2022, the world will gather for the COP27 climate negotiations in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt. The debate will focus on enabling a just transition away from fossil fuels while adapting to climate change.
The case for connecting such action with air pollution reduction has never been stronger. Influential recent studies highlight that current climate finance across Africa falls far short of its adaptation and mitigation needs, and calls for a massive uptick in outside investment. Clean Air Fund research published ahead of COP26 in Glasgow shows that action on climate change can be achieved more cheaply, quickly, and fairly by prioritising solutions that also deliver cleaner air.
Meanwhile the 2022 IPCC report on climate mitigation showed that the financial value of health benefits from improving air quality alone would far exceed the costs of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The significant benefits to human health, the environment and other social and economic advantages outlined in this report will help Africa achieve the goals of the African Union’s Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, a “master plan for transforming Africa into the global powerhouse of the future”.
Clean air is not a named goal of Agenda 2063, the UN’s Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development or the UNFCCC’s Paris agreements. But it is critical to achieving most of their targets.
The UN General Assembly recently declared access to a healthy environment a basic human right. As with air pollution, the climate calculations are particularly stark for African economies. The continent is warming faster than the global average, despite contributing less than 3% to total global greenhouse gas emissions. In spite of this, recent Clean Air Fund Research shows less than 4% of total aid funding for reducing air pollution is directed at Africa. Perversely, from 2015-2021, donor governments spent 36 times more aid on prolonging fossil fuel use in Africa than tackling air pollution.
This plays into a topical debate around how developing economies are supported to transition away from the fossil fuel-led development that will destroy their futures, without missing out on growth opportunities the richer world benefited from.
The economic fundamentals of such calculations are shifting fast. Recent research finds that renewable energy is now a cheaper option than fossil fuels, and could save the world as much as $12tn by 2050. Measures that shift away from fossil fuels increasingly make economic sense on their own terms, and will also provide solutions to air pollution. Acting on this evidence is a matter of political choice and leadership from governments, donors, funders and investors.
This report sets out the case for urban planning and national policies that prioritise clean air as an engine for fast, fair and sustainable growth in powerhouses like Accra, Cairo, Lagos and Johannesburg. City leaders working on this agenda closely with national and regional institutions will also contribute substantially to wider efforts to fight climate change and position nations to thrive in a low-carbon future.
- Cities should commit to the C40 Clean Air Cities Declaration and planning framework. Cities should also improve tracking and reporting systems to provide data and evidence, which supports an integrated approach to emission control actions.
- National governments must review high-emitting sectors like energy, transport, industrial and power production to identify ways to reduce air pollution. They should also prioritise health and climate gains in infrastructure and service investments, and make action on air pollution an explicit priority in climate action and sustainable development activities.
- Funders should increase Official Development Assistance and other grant-based funding for air quality programmes, focusing especially on overlooked regions like Africa. Support should be diverted from fossil-fuel investments towards renewables.
See our full recommendations for African governments, city mayors and other local government leaders across Africa, OECD-DAC donors and multilateral development banks, philanthropic foundations and civil society organisations.
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